Post Draft Results regarding our
Top 73
2025 MLB DRAFT PROSPECTS (NCAA ONLY)
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Now that the draft has concluded, it's time to assess how we (or real GM's did) using our Top 75, err, top 73 draft prospect list as a guide. Although this draft was viewed as relatively weak compared to others, it turned out to be incredibly hot for High School shortstops, and really, high school players, period! (at least early on). In 2024, just 23% of players were drafted from the high school ranks (or community colleges), leaving the remaining 77% to come from 4 year colleges and universities. For us, that meant that if we ranked 75 college players, then we'd be through about 100 players total (and close to three rounds). But, when Round 1 was concluded (including the performance incentive, compensatory and competitive balance picks), we saw 19 High Schoolers from the 43 players drafted. That's 44%. That is incredible. While that number will undoubtedly creep back down to the 20% ish range by the time the draft concludes on Monday, it was still a wake-up call about high school talent (or perceived talent), the amount of scouting that takes place that level (or earlier) and again, the perceived weakness in the college ranks. While we're fairly certain one or more of those HS SS draftees becomes a regular starter in the majors, for us, in the end, it blew our draft model up a bit. For next year, we're going to have to adjust the HS player ratio for the 1st and 2nd round where more HS players are likely to fall (compared to later rounds). But for now, for purposes of seeing how we did, we'll stick to the 23% cushion for our grade.
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Our Rank​​​​​​ Player Position/School Drafted (Rd/#) (+/-) Team
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1. Aiva Arquette 2B/SS/3B Oregon State 1.7 (+6) Marlins
A great, great pick for Miami, and a lot of value here. We think Aiva will become Miami's best position player in a few years time.
2. Liam Doyle SP/Tennessee 1.5 (+3) Cardinals
We were going to write that Liam Doyle is instantly STL's best pitching prospect...then we remembered Chen-Wei Lin....so we'll hold off until Liam gets a few pro starts under his belt.
​3. Andrew Fischer 3B/1B/2B/Tennessee 1.20 (+16)​​ Brewers
Hard for us to believe that MIL gets another slugging 3B (who hit the 3rd most HRs in D-1), especially all the way down at #20.
4. Kyson Witherspoon SP/Oklahoma 1.15 (+10) Red Sox​​
Luis Perales and Kyson Witherspoon on the Boston farm = wow.
5. Ike Irish C/OF/Auburn 1.19 (+13) Orioles
Baltimore sure loves its catchers and yet it never seems to have enough.​​​ Ike will end being a little bit Basallo (power), a little bit Adley (hit tool), and yet maybe also Daulton Varsho (if he doesn't stick at catcher).
6. Marek Houston SS/WakeForest 1.16 (+9) Twins
Minnesota picks up an elite defensive SS who can hit and run pretty well too.
​7. Mason Neville OF/Oregon 4.9 #114 (+106) Reds
Based on our ranks, Mason Neville was the best value through the first four rounds of the draft. We love the power profile from the 6'3" Mason Neville (so, apparently, does Cincy).
​​​8. Alex Lodise SS/Florida State Univ. 2.17 #60 (+50) Braves​​
MLB network's Harold Reynolds was saying on air after the first round ("draft Alex Lodise") and Atlanta was listening. PS this guy can hit.
9. Wehiwa Aloy SS/Arkansas 1C.31 (+20) Orioles
That's two fantastic picks from the O's, who are pretty good at drafting future studs! They said they were keyed in having a great draft and they are!
​​​10. Riley Quick SP/Alabama 1.CB-A.36 (+24) Twins
Minny is also up there with our favorite draft classes with this first two picks.
​​​11. Marcus Phillips SP/Tennessee 1.CB-A.33 (+19) Red Sox
With their 2nd pick of the 1st round, Boston AGAIN goes college pitching...and another total stud. Next year, at AA Portland, there is a potential to see Perales, Witherspoon​ and Marcus Phillips (ouch, for opposing batters).
12. Gage Wood SP/Arkansas 1.26 (+12) Phillies​​
A strong pick for Philadelphia and right about where MLB Pipeline had him.
13. Kade Anderson SP/LSU 1.3 (-13) Mariners
How Seattle went Kade over Ethan Holliday or Liam Doyle or Kyson Witherspoon or Riley Quick or Seth Hernandez or Marcus Phillips says to me that Seattle needs a change in their player evaluation. We know, MLB pipeline had Kade at #2 and BA and Keith Law all had Kade very high...but success in college does not guarantee success in the pros and Kade's arsenal is not wipeout material (though a 92-93 mph FB in college can itself be hard to hit while it won't be in the upper minors). Kade is all about changing speeds and movement...which can be successful when it's on...it just takes a lot to be on. After seeing Emerson Hancock struggle in the minors and then the pros, we're just flatly surprised by the pick here. Seattle needed a cornerstone third basemen like Ethan Holliday and passed, Seattle needed a flamethrower and passed....let's hope that all those scouts and execs in Seattle know better than us (which sure, is an easy yes at this moment, but let's wait and see how this one plays out....).
​​14. Ryan Wideman OF/Western Kentucky 3.24 #99 (+82) Nationals
Great pick by Washington. Great great pick. Ranked #146 by MLB Pipeline (but #14 by us), Washington went and got our unicorn of the draft -- and one of our soon to be favorite minor leaguers...a Brenton Doyle 2.0
​​15. James Quinn-Irons OF/George Mason 5.11 #147 (+129) Rays
Tampa Bay drafted a very similar player to the Nationals' Ryan Wideman, but ended up doing so 2 rounds and 48 picks later. While we love the Nats' pick at #99, we love what the Rays did in getting another one of our favorite prospects (even later in the draft).
​​​​16. Ethan Conrad 1B/OF/Wake 1.17 (-3) Cubs​​
MLB Pipeline had Ethan at #28 overall and we had him at 16 (and we're almost spot on when he was drafted at 17).
17. Mason White SS/Arizona 4.13 #118 (+91) Red Sox
Did we mention how much we liked Boston's draft? Baltimore, Minny, Boston....best drafts
​​​18. Gavin Turley OF/Oregon State 4.5 #110 (+88) Athletics
The fourth round turned out to be great value on some future MLB studs.​​​
19. Cam Leiter SP/FSU 2.22 #65 (+42) Dodgers
A strong pick by the Dodgers here, with great bloodlines and a plus arsenal. This also brings us back to Seattle's picks. So, the M's could have had Ethan Holliday ​​at 1.3 (but took Kade Anderson). Then, at 1.35 they made a good pick with Luke Stevenson (C, UNC), and while no offense to Luke, that pick should have been Alex Lodise (SS) or Riley Quick (SP) or Cam Leiter (SP)....all of whom Seattle will regret passing on. Of course, they did hit on Cal Raleigh that no one saw coming (at least not this year's Cal Raleigh).
20. Kyle Lodise SS/Georgia Tech 3.1 #76 (+51) White Sox
The 2nd of the Lodise bros goes in the third round to CWS. ​​
21. Bobby Boser 3B/Florida 11.5 #320 (+294) Athletics
As far as our projected 1st rounders went, Bobby fell the farthest in our ranks -- from our first round grade and MLB Pipeline's 4th or 5th round grade all the way to the 11th round. So, either we were way off or the A's got an absolute steal.
​​22. Jared Jones 1B/LSU 9.8 #263 (+236) Pirates
Wait, the Pirates have TWO Jared Joneses? How are we going to handle that? Ugh. Anyway, this Jared Jones may have made a mistake returning to LSU for 2025 as the expected signing bonus is going to be "just" in the $200K range. Still, Jared has great potential and a great chance to move quickly in the Pirates system (and earn himself a better pay day)​
​23. Gavin Kilen 2B/TN 1.13 (-15) Giants
San Fran is stoked at drafting the Vols' spark plug and just the type of player the baseball g-men covet.​ Except this guy's uni to always be dirty.​​​​​​​
​​24. Cade Obermueller SP/IOWA 2.22 #63 Phillies
The Phils with back-to-back high floor college pitchers in Rounds 1-2.
25. Ethan Frey OF/LSU 3.20 #95 (+64) Astros
​​​​​26. Brendan Summerhill OF/AZ 1-CB-A-42 (+10) Rays
While we liked Brendan (and MLB Pipeline had him even higher at #16), with so many other highly rated players available, we would have liked to see the Rays go Mason Neville or Alex Lodise here, over Brendan Summerhill...but it's not a terrible pick so we'll see how it plays out.
​27. Tyler Bremner SP/UCSB 1.2 (-31) Angels
Everyone is talking about how nuts a pick this was for LAA (but this is also the problem associated with not being able to trade down and get their guy, which MLB needs to fix). We liked Tyler fine, but not 1.2 type fine. This was a huge swing for LAA but maybe Tyler's production together with the $$ savings will ultimately justify it. Or, if not, then for the next 10 years LAA will regret not drafting Ethan Holliday, Liam Doyle, Seth Hernandez, Aiva Arquett, Ike Irish or Kyson Witherspoon....
28. Max Belyeu OF/TEX 2.CB.B.31 #74 (+40) Rockies
29. Cam Cannarella OF/Clemson 1.CB.A.43 (+7) Marlins
Miami came up with two gems in the draft, 2 quick to the majors type position players and are on our list of A+ drafts.
30. Devin Taylor OF/IND 2.5 #48 (+11) Athletics
The A's get another athletic outfielder to develop.
31. Beau Ankeney 1B/3B/LMU 14.24 #429 (+391) Tigers
Beau was a Competitive Balance round or 2nd round grade for us, but fell to Detroit in the 14th round. It's a great deal for the Tigers who can take a flyer on a player that we think can be really good.
32. Korbyn Dickerson OF/Indiana 5.16 #152 (+113) Mariners
Although Bobby Boser, Jared Jones and Beau Ankeney were all rated (by us) as ahead of Korbyn Dickerson (and all available when SEA made this pick), it's not a bad pick at all, Korbyn is a solid player, high floor guy. And though Korbyn's outfield mate (Devin Taylor) didn't get drafted by the same team (A's), they get the chance to play in the same division!
33. Jamie Arnold SP/FSU 1.11 (-30) Athletics
The A's could have gone Kyson Witherspoon (1.15), Marcus Phillips (1.33) or Riley Quick (1.36) but went Jamie Arnold who we feel is not going to help the pitching needy A's as much as they'd hope. But, maybe they like the JP Sears type (he is, after all, a major leaguer).
34. Zack Root SP/ARK 1.40 (-2) Dodgers
​​​35. Jace LaViolette OF/Texas A&M 1.27 (-16) Guardians
36. Luke Stevenson C/UNC 1.35 (-9) Mariners
A decent if not strong pick, it's just that there were other higher ceiling players available.
​37. Eddie Madrigal 1B/OF/C/St.Mary's [Undrafted, committed to Auburn]
Our first real miss. Or all the teams' first miss. Eddie's cousin is Nick Madrigal (former White Sox now Cubby infielder) who was drafted 4th overall in 2015...but....Nick played at Oregon State . For Eddie, playing at St. Mary's (despite excelling there) just simply tanked his stock. The same happened to another cousin, Ty Madrigal, who signed with the Southsiders as an undrafted free agent after playing for the Gaels. But, alas, perhaps Eddie made it clear that he was transferring to Auburn to finish out his college career. We'll look to re-rank him here next year!
38. Boston Smith C/OF/Wright State 6.6 #171 (+124) Nationals
While playing at Wright State didn't necessarily "help" Boston Smith, the MLB Draft league sure did as Boston quickly established himself as a top half of the draft prospect. We're telling ya, clubs over value certain leagues and devalue all the rest....missing out on some strong prospects.
39. Cardell Thibodeaux OF/Southern 16.25 #490 (+441) Padres
The next Esteury Ruiz for the Fathers? Hopefully Esteury Ruiz 2.0 can stick in the pros! You know we like Cardell a lot, 2nd round type vibes for us, and for SDP to get him in the 16th round, well that was this draft's best overall value until the 17th round!
​40. Cameron Nickens OF/Austin Peay 17.15 #510 (+461) Cardinals
Hits for Average, hits bombs, what more is there? The Cards not only got a very strong prospect, they also the best value in the draft (clapping).
41. Easton Carmichael C/OKL 3.7 #82 (+32) Pirates
42. Charles Davalan OF/ARK 1.CB.A.41 (-9) Dodgers
43. ​ AJ Russell RP/TEN 2.9 #52 (-1) Rangers
44. Chase Shores RP/LSU 2.4 #47 (-7) Angels
45. Nick Dumesnil OF/Cal Baptist 8.24 #249 (+194) Tigers
Great pick by Detroit and hard to believe Nick was still on the board in the 8th round.
46. Paxton Kling OF/PSU 7.10 #205 (+148) Rangers
Same goes for Paxton and Texas, a great value pick in the 7th round.
47. Mitch Voit 2B/MICH 1.38 (-20) Mets
48. JT Quinn SP/RP/Georgia 2.CB-B.25 #69 (+11) Orioles
MLB Pipeline had JT at #127, we had him at #59 (with HS and Juco players added in). The O's were clearly more on our side on this one.
49. Brian Curley SP/Georgia 3.17 (#92) (+32) D-Backs
50. Tanner Franklin RP/TN 2.CB-B.28 #72 (+10) Cardinals
We had Tanner #62 overall (with expected HS/Juco players being drafted), the cards nabbed him at #72 (MLB Pipeline ranked Tanner as the #124 overall prospect, so STL was more aligned with us here)
51. Murf Gray 3B/Fresno State 2.CB-B.30 #73 (+10) Pirates
Wow, two guys we had ranked back to back in the 2nd round, went back to back in the 2nd round (MLB Pipeline had Murf at #141- a 5th round value)
52. Colby Shelton SS/3B/UF 6.1 #166 (+102) White Sox
53. Ethan Hedges 3B/USC 3.2 #77 (+12) Rockies
We were also higher on the 2nd Ethan to be drafted, having Hedges at #65 (late 2nd round) while MLB had him at #159 (lat 5th round)
54. Aaron Walton OF/AZ 2.CB.B.23 #66 (a hit) Reds
After some near misses (1 or 2 off, cue Zack Root and AJ Russell), we were spot on here with Aaron W at pick #66 in the 2nd round. Zack is a 6'3" power hitting outfielder from the University of Arizona who MLB Pipeline had going in the late 5th round
55. Kane Kepley OF/UNC 2.13 #56 (-12) Cubs
56. Jack Gurevitch 1B/USD 3.14 #89 (+21) Cardinals
The STL front office shared our more bullish view of Gurevitch (despite playing in the WCC this past season). MLB was much lower at #144)
57. Gabe Davis RP/OK State 5.1 #137 (+67) White Sox
58. Nate Snead RP/TN 3.30 #105 (+34) Angels
59. Grant Jay C/OF/Dallas Baptist 12.17 #362 (+289) Mariners
We've been cold on the M's draft until now, as we love what Grant Jay brings to the table in terms of being able to catch, plus pop, plus some speed and ability to play the outfield.
60. Antonio Jimenez SS/UCF 3.27 #102 (+28) Mets
61. Brent Iredale 3B/ARK 7.8 #203 (+128) Pirates
62. Damian Bravo OF/TTU 15.11 #446 (+370) Giants
Bravo, Bravo, we say to San Fran for this great value pick in round 15. Both us and MLB Pipeline (#186) were surprised to see Damian last this long.
63. Cam Maldonado OF/Northeastern 7.11 #206 (+128) Giants
Were the Giants drafting from our board?
64. Michael Salina SP/St. Bonaventure 4.25 #130 (+51) Padres
65. Gabe Craig RP/Baylor 5.25 #161 (+81) Phillies
66. Brayden Simpson 3B/1B/High Point [undrafted, committed to LSU]
67. Christian Foutch RP/ARK 5.12 #148 (+66) Red Sox
68. Patrick Forbes SP/Louisville 1.C.29 (-55) D-Backs
69. Robbie Burnett OF/UG [Undrafted]
70. Ryland​​ Zaborowski 3B/1B/OF/UG [Undrafted]
That's back to back University of Georgia draft prospects that we had going as 2nd round compensatory picks that went undrafted. Where did we (or teams) go wrong?
71. Jordan McCladdie OF/Jackson State [Undrafted]
Oh-oh, that's 3 in a row for us. So what, Jackson State, this guy can fly!
72. Kyle Fossum OF/Youngstown State [Undrafted]
Ok, that's 4 misses in a row by us, and again bummed with the Youngstown State single season HR leader and Horizon League player of the year not getting his name called.
73. Jake McCutcheon OF/Missouri State 10.3 #288 (+198) Marlins
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So what 4 year players did we totally miss on?
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Of the 43 selections in the 1st round (plus PPI, plus compensatory plus CB-A), 23 (just 54%) were 4 year college players (we hit 100% on those)
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Of the 31 2nd round selections, 21 (68%) were 4 year college players. Of those 21, we hit on just 14 or 67%. According to the teams that drafted them (and MLB Pipeline), we were remiss to not rank ASU OF Brandon Compton, South Carolina 1B Ethan Petry, Joseph Dzierwa (MSU P), JD Thompson (LHP Vandy), Michael Lombardi (RHP Tulane), Malachi Witherspoon (OSU SP) and Dean Curley (SS TN). But, for 5 of those players, we just didn't think they were top 3 round type players -- and we'll stand by that. Brandon doesn't have any trait that jumps out, Ethan Petry strikes out to much and is limited athletically (to probably DH, but can he hit enough to stay even there?). Dzierwa, despite his 6'8" size, has an 80 mph changeup that's his best pitch, the 6'0" JD Thompson has an ok slider (to go with what else?) while Michael Lombardi throws 93 but has a good curveball (meh). Should these 5 have been drafted? Sure, just not in the top 3 rounds (much less the top 2).
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The two guys that we own up missing on were Malachi Witherspoon....who we should have had in our top 75 (at 74 or 75), and who went #62 overall and the talented (soon to be 3B) Dean Curley, who went #64. Both of these players were 2nd or 3rd round talents that we initially missed on.​​​​
