There were high expectations for the Red Sox' Brayan Bello in his first MLB start of 2023 (4/17/23)
And it started out well
But didn't end well.
With a 95.6 belt high FB to Hunter Renfro for a 3 run HR (98.3 exit velo) being the big shot.
And RedSox Nation (and critics, hard to tell who is who sometimes) were ablaze!
So what was the problem?
Well, as some in Twitterverse very aptly noted, Brayan Bello didn't rely on his changeup very often
And that was certainly a difference from 2022 where 24% of Bello's pitches were changeups (compared to just 14% in his first start in 2023).
But wasn't there something else amiss?
Bello's fastball velocity was down (on average, 1.6 mph on his 4-seamer and right about 1mph on his sinker). Now maybe that's not huge, but in 2022, Bello relied on his Sinker (35.2%) 4-Seamer (18.7%) combination a pretty significant 53.9% of the time. And those pitches (the Sinker and 4-Seamer) set up the slider (.277 BAA in 2022) and change (.158 BAA in 2022).
While Bello's FB velo was also down in his last start for Worcester (4/11/23), it was only down about .5 mph as this AAA game chart shows (with Bello's 65th pitch on that night still coming in at 96.4).
In the MLB start, while Bello started out hot to Neto (at 96.1-96.9 mph)
By just the 3rd batter there was a noticeable dip in velocity.
Which definitely continues to the 8th batter faced (O'Hoppe), who lines (who are we kidding, absolutely smashes) a single to left (108.3 exit velo) -- though, that was off one of Belo's "better" fastballs at 96 mph.
And here's your breakdown of pitches thrown, velocity and results (and expected results).
Now it's a short sample (72 pitches) and there was still some variation on the FB (mainly 94-96) which is a good thing, but overall, on the evening, the FB averaged 95.4. While that's still above the MLB average of about 94mph, Bello has relied on a well above average FB (97 mph) for the effectiveness of his other pithes. With the FB having less effectiveness (or just being totally ineffective), Bello began relying more on the slider (36.1%) in start 1 compared to 22% on average in 2022.
And, the 84.3 mph slider wasn't fooling anyone (.750 BAA)
Now, back to the changeup. In order to throw the change, the pitcher sets it up with his fastball. And, the most productive changeups are 10-12% slower (with movement) than a pitcher's FB. Although Bello came out firing 97, he soon was dipping to 96/95/94. To have an effective changeup, the change would come in at 87mph for a 97mph FB, 86mph for a 96 mph FB, 85 for a 95 mph FB and so on. Without a dominant FB coming in at 97mph, maybe Bello (or his catcher or the dugout) lost confidence in his 87 mph changeup. But, in hindsight, with 2 K's and zero hits off the change, it sure would have made sense to have thrown it more
(like that 2nd pitch to Hunter Renfro).
But, in thinking more about that pitch to Renfro, whether it came in at 96.5 or 98.5, you throw it down the middle, belt-high and you're asking for a major league hitter to do exactly what Hunter did.
And so maybe there's something to starting batters off 1-0 and feeling you have to groove a strike...
As for now, we wait and see what Boston and (not Paul) Brayan do in Start #2. Can't wait!
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