Not long ago, a writer from Fantrax (who was convinced that Carroll was the top remaining prospect in MiLB) asked me who I would take over Carroll in a Dynasty Draft.
Well, that has had me thinking. Who would I take?
Well, assuming that we did existing players first and then had a separate "NA" type draft, and assuming I had a top 10 pick (if the draft was 10 or more teams), then we'll, let's tackle my/our options.
Let's start with the consensus ranks (MLB). According to MLB Pipeline's top 100 the top 16 prospects (from on or about 6/1/22) were:
Adley Rutschman BALT C (who we'll deem graduated from our list)
Riley Greene DET OF (only an injury had derailed Greene, but he's still yet to make his MLB debut)
Grayson Rodriguez BALT SP (Grayson was on the doorstep of a promotion before his injury)
Gabriel Moreno TOR C (just promoted)
Anthony Volpe NYY SS
C.J. Abrams SD SS (Promoted then demoted)
Francisco Alvarez NYM C
Marco Luciano SF SS/3B
Noelvi Marte SEA SS
Marcelo Mayer BOS SS
Daniel Espino CLE SP
Shane Baz TB SP (who is a MLB SP and shouldn't be on this list)
Corbin Carroll (ah, the future of baseball, and new #1 Rotowire)
[.324 Avg, 14 HRs, 19 SBs 1.087 OPS (#11) .463 wOBA (#9) wRC+ 170]
(Corbin's advantage here [over emerging prospects] is that he's been a hot prospect for at least three years, after his 2019 selection at 1.16, and despite the injury last year which wiped out most of his A+ season at Hillsboro. There's no denying plus plus speed and a plus hit tool and average to slightly above average power (despite the 14 HRs)....But, the most concerning part of Corbin's game to me is his K rate of 24.4% which will only increase in the bigs. Can you count on a leadoff batter who strikes out 30% of the time? Maybe that makes Corbin a #9 hole hitter in MLB until he can bring the k-rate down to 20-25%)
14. Triston Casas BOS 1B (struggles then an injury in AAA)
15. Jack Leiter TEX SP (struggles in AA is not a good sign)
16. Brennen Davis CHC OF (a real bad start to AAA followed by an injury has dropped Brennen's stock, as seen by the #4 Rotowire rank down to #34)
But when we take out the prospects (who are on MLB rosters as of 6/16/22), we're left with:
Riley Greene (#2 Rotowire)
Grayson Rodriguez (#11 Rotowire)
Anthony Volpe (#17 Rotowire)
C.J. Abrams (#8 Roto)
Francisco Alvarez (#62 Roto)
Marco Luciano (#36 Roto)
Noelvi Marte (#37 Roto)
Marcelo Mayer (#24 Roto)
Daniel Espino (#29 Roto)
Corbin Carroll (#1 Roto)
Triston Casas (#18 Roto)
Jack Leiter (#96 Roto)
Brennen Davis (#34 Roto)
Ok, not a bad list. But, does that list really account for developments from the 2022 season (guys that have put together, and maintained, incredible MiLB seasons)? How do we mesh the "scouting" and "projections" with the production? One is rather subjective (with some measurables) while the other is objective (but also with or without measurables)
The notable season crushing prospects that we're missing from the top 13 list above are these guys:
1. Esteury Ruiz SD (AAA) 2B/OF Age: 23
272 PA's .372 Avg (#1) 13 HRs 1.157 OPS (#1) 8.9 Spd 44 SBs (#1) .499 wOBA (#1) 193 wRC+ (#3) 17.4%Krate
(MILB's steals, OPS, wOBA and BA leader is inexplicably not ranked in MLB's top 100, but instead, is found way way down at #29 in the San Diego top 30)
2. Alex Kirilloff MN (AAA) OF Age: 24
153 PA's .359 Avg (#6) 10 HRs 1.106 OPS (#5) .478 wOBA (#4) 193 wRC+ (#2) 16.6%K rate
(Alex was a mainstay for the Twins last year but found himself demoted this year and back on our radar. At just 24, the AAA production has him back knocking at the door!)
3. Gunnar Henderson BALT (AAA) 3B/SS Age: 21
248 PA's .308 Avg 10 HRs 1.027 OPS wRC+ 180 17.3%K rate 21.0% BB-rate (18th best in MiLB) Spd 7.8 12 SBs 180 wRC+ (#7)
(Gunnar is on the quick track to the Bigs and AAA isn't going to slow him down)
4. Enmanuel Valdez HOU (AAA) 2B/3B Age: 23
240 PA's .358 Avg (#7) 1.146 OPS (#2), .333 ISO, 16 Hrs, 17 2Bs .482 wOBA (#3) 182 wRC+ (#5)
(Despite his incredible season, Valdez' hasn't been talked about much...perhaps due to a fairly Avg K rate: 23.8%, and lower end speed: 4.5 Spd)
5. DL Hall BAL (AAA) SP Age: 23
40.7% K rate, 11.7% BB rate, .199 Opp Avg, 3.52 ERA, 2.56 xFIP (#13)
6. Trey Cabbage LAA (AA) OF Age: 25
136 PA's .327 Avg 1.098 OPS (#9) .336 ISO 6.7 Spd .464 wOBA (#7) 179 wRC+ (#8)
(After hitting 18 HRs across 278 PA's in AA last year [for MN's affilate], Trey has picked up where he left off belting 10 HRs across 136 ABs this year (while reducing his K rate fro 39.6% to 34.6% and increasing his average from .262 to .327)
7. Kerry Carpenter DET (AA) OF Age: 24
230 PA's .310 Avg 1.027 OPS .352 ISO (#6) 176 wRC+
(We can't leave off the MiLB leader in Home Runs [21,tie] can we? But a high K rate [27.0%] and slower end speed [2.6] maybe leave some question marks for Kerry)
8. Andrew Painter PHI (A+) SP Age: 19
44.0% K rate (#4), .151 Opp Avg, 1.94 ERA, 2.14 xFIP (#4)
9. Marc Church TEX (A+) RP Age 21
44.5% K rate (#3), 4.2% BB rate, .211 Opp Avg 2.64 ERA, 1.64 x FIP (#1)
10. Sean Bouchard COL (AAA) 1B/OF Age: 26
165 PA's .338 Avg (#18) 11 HRs 8.1 Spd, 9 SBs 1.114 OPS (#4) .343 ISO (#8) .460 wOBA (#10) 169 wRC+
11. Moises Gomez STL (AA) OF Age: 23
224 PA's .323 Avg 21 HRs 1.105 OPS (#6) .393 ISO (#3) .459 wOBA (#11) 168 wRC+ 34.4% K rate, 4.4 Spd
12. Matt Gorski PIT (AA) OF Age: 24
227 PA's .284 Avg 20 HRs 1.017 .365 ISO (#5) 8.4 Spd 14 SBs 26.9% K rate
13. Emmanuel Rodriguez MN (A) OF Age: 19
199 PA's .272 Avg 1.044 OPS (#16) 6.7 Spd .476 wOBA (#5) 199 WRC+ (#1), 26.1% K-rate but 28.6% BB rate (#1 in MiLB)
14. Wilmer Flores DET (AA) SP Age: 21
38.2% K rate, 3.6% BB rate, 2.57 ERA, 2.11 xFIP (#3)
15. Ricky Tiedemann TOR (A+) SP Age: 19
42.1% K rate (#9), 8.7% BB rate, 1.27 ERA (#11), 2.27 xFIP (#5)
16. Royber Salinas ATL (A+) SP Age: 21
44.8% K rate (#1), .169 Opp Avg 3.21 ERA, 2.99 xFIP
I'm not sure what I think of the MLB ranks (which are heavily reliant on scouting and prior year), or on the RotoWire ranks which sometimes bump or deflate based on current year production and then sometimes don't (making the ranks erratic and inconsistent).
So, how about this? What if we combined all three ranks (our current season production ranks above, the MLB ranks and Roto's). We'll merge these into our new top 30 prospect rank? Well, then let's see what we have.....
6/17/22 TOP 30 FANTASY PROSPECTS (EXCLUDING GRADUATIONS)
1. Grayson Rodriguez BALT (#3 MLB, #11 Rotowire)
The #13 prospect (per FanTrax) is #1 on our board due to a 60 Future Value rank, a 100 MPH fastball, 4 plus pitches including a devastating slider and curve and a very impressive campaign at AAA Norfolk (56 IP, 2.69 xFIP, 37.4% K rate, 6.5% BB rate, .166 OPP Avg)
2. Esteury Ruiz SD (#77 Rotowire)
(I literally watch this guy play everyday and even though all the metrics tell me how good he is, so do my eyes. MLB and Rotowire are behind the game on Ruiz)
3. Jordan Walker STL (#25 MLB, #4 Roto)
(Yes, probably a surprise here, but I'm sold on Jordan Walker's ability. I just don't know where he'll play! DH?)
4. Riley Greene DET (#2 MLB, #2 Rotowire)
(Riley hasn't exactly blasted the cover off the ball -- .274 Avg, .725 OPS, 1 HR, 3SBs, 62 ABs, but has all the tools necessary to succeed long term in MLB, and, as I write this, I've just been notified that Riley will be called up for his MLB debut)
5. C.J. Abrams SD (#6 MLB, #8 Roto)
(Love how C.J. has handled the demotion and how well he has hit, including for power)
6. Gunnar Henderson BALT (#45 MLB, #16 Roto)
(Gunnar is a future star. That's it. He is)
7. Daniel Espino CLE (#11 MLB, #29 Roto)
(Espino has pitched to the tune of a 2.49 ERA with a microscopic .72 WHIP with 35 K's in 18 innings while hitting 102 mph on the radar. Wow, just wow. And there may be more in the tank)
8. Corbin Carroll (#13 MLB, #1 Roto)
(Corbin is a very good prospect and he's backed it up with a very good season. Could he strike out less? sure. Could he be higher on this rank? yeah. But could he also be just a tad bit lower? yes as well)
9. DL Hall BAL (#78 MLB, #133 Roto)
(With GrayRod's injury, DL Hall will be the next major pitching piece on the BALT horizon)
10. Matt Gorski PIT (#30 PIT top 30-MLB, #392 Roto)
(Yes. A 4th Huge Surprise here [first Ruiz, then Jordan Walker, then DL Hall, now Gorski]. Although Gorski strikes out a bit too much for me, he has some serious power AND wheels, and can play all three OF positions. On a team (Altoona) with Henry Davis, Liover Peguero and Nick Gonzalez, Gorski stands out as the best hitter and I can seem him as the future #4, #5 hitter in the Pirates lineup)
BTW, here is Pittsburgh's potential lineup next year (if Bryan Reynolds is traded):
1) Liover Peguero (SS),
2) Nick Gonzalez (2B),
3) KeBryan Hayes (3B),
4) Henry Davis (C),
5) Matt Gorski (LF),
6) O'Neil Cruz (RF),
7) Jacob Gonzalez (1B),
8) Matt Frazier (CF),
9) Jack Suwinski (DH/4th OF)
Bench: Diego Castillo (INF), Tucupita Marcano (INF), Cal Mitchell (OF)
11. Alex Kirilloff MN (Too many MLB AB's? No Top Ranks)
(Alex is back, momentarily, in the prospect pool but will soon be promoted for good)
12. Enmanuel Valdez HOU (unranked)
(What a year! I'm almost tempted to move Enmanuel up ahead of Corbin, but Corbin's speed carries the day)
13. Vinnie Pasquantino (#3 KC top 30, #20 Roto)
(Vinnie is ready for the show!)
14. Ezequiel Tovar (#3 COL top 30, #33 Roto)
15. Triston Casas BOS (#14 MLB, #18 Roto)
(.248 Avg in AAA, 6 HRS over 129 ABs hasn't entralled us)
16. Anthony Volpe NYY (#5 MLB, #17 Rotowire)
(.227 Avg in AA is way better than it was, and while 6 HRs is ok, the 21 SBs really pop...but Volpe hasn't been able to replicate last year's A+ monster year)
17. Henry Davis (#20 MLB, #21 Roto)
18. Noelvi Marte SEA (#9 MLB, #37 Roto)
(Noelvi is so talented, but can't put it together yet at A+ Everett)
19. Marco Luciano SF (#8 MLB, #36 Roto)
(.288 8 HRS is a good rebound from a dismal 2021)
20. Jordan Lawlar BOS (#19 MLB, #5 Roto)
(.352 Avg, 7 HRs, 18 SBs, Lawlar is showing out to be the best pick from the 2021 draft, at least in the early going)
21. Kerry Carpenter DET (unranked)
(Just no love for the MiLB leader in HRs)
22. Andrew Painter PHI (#134 Roto)
(A machine!)
23. Trey Cabbage LAA (unranked)
(The K [Cabbage?] rate not good, but everything else is for Trey's breakout year)i
24. Marc Church TEX RP Age 21 (unranked)
(No one likes to rank closers, but this guy is lights out)
25. Sean Bouchard COL (unranked)
26. Moises Gomez STL (#213 Roto)
27. Logan O'Hoppe PHIL (#154 Roto)
28. Emmanuel Rodriguez MN (#245 Roto)
29. Wilmer Flores DET (#127 Roto)
30. Ricky Tiedemann TOR (#78 Roto)
Dropping out of our top 30:
Francisco Alvarez (#7 MLB, #62 Roto)
Marcelo Mayer (#10 MLB, #24 Roto)
Jack Leiter (#15 MLB, #96 Roto)
Brennen Davis (#16 MLB, #34 Roto)
Nick Gonzalez (#18 MLB, #41 Roto)
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