So last week we came out with our inaugural SPOW (speed/power) ranks, but that left some heavy hitters out of the mix -- namely the guys that could hit it a long way, but were not exactly swift afoot. To remedy, we had to come up with a ranking that included the power stats without penalizing the big boppers for their sun dial times around the basepaths.
So where do we start? Well, we all know straight slugging (SLG) which counts the extra base hits as a percentage of ABs (total bases divided by ABs: (1B + 2Bx2 + 3Bx3 + HRx4)/AB). And, of course there's OPS (On Base Percentage [OBP] + SLG) (which some sabermetricians don't like because the formula makes SLG and OBP equal when the saber rattlers known that OBP is actually more valuable to run production).
But are SLG and/or OPS still the best metrics to measure power numbers?
SLG can gives us a relative power number, like in a game in which the batter goes 1/4, with 1 HR, or 2/4 with 2 2Bs, the SLG is 1.000. In both cases (1.000 SLG) is an insane number. But let's say it was a doubleheader and the batter went 0/4 in the 2nd game. So we have 1/8, 1 HR = .500 (or 2/8 with 2 2Bs). That .500 SLG, you'll find, would be a pretty decent season long average. But are 1/8 with 1 HR or 1/2 with 2 2Bs the type of power hitter we're looking to scout? Are there better metrics for us to use?
Maybe its ISO which is SLG minus BA (Batting Average) with a .300 ISO being pretty good. But, what if the player has a high batting average relative to the power numbers (2/8 2 2Bs = .500SLG -.250BA = .250 ISO or a low batting average but high slugging like our 1/8 1 HR power hitter: .500SLG - .125 BA = .375 ISO). Which batter is more valuable or more of a slugger?
To remedy our shortcomings, we have to come up with a formula that combines these statistics (OPS/ISO) but adds additional metrics that give us a better feel for the relative success of the hitter. So, we're going to add in wRC+ (Weighted Runs Created Plus), a metric which also includes # of Plate Appearances, and we'll give a slight bump for speed while reducing the score for K rate (batters don't help anyone by striking out) and reduce the score by the number of double plays grounded into (which really hurts a team). And, like the SPOW formula, we will adjust also based on level of play (from AAA to Single A), we'll require a minimum of 110 ABs (so we can get a better reading), and finally, we'll require a minimum .900 OPS (which is generally viewed as being very very good).
In the end, our player pool was comprised of about 104 players, and our formula looked like this: (Level [.85/.9/.95/1]*OPS)+(wRC+/175)-(K%/Level [.85/.9/.95/1])+ISO-(GDP/PA)+(SpdScore*.1) = Power Score
According to our formula and metrics, a score of 1.25 is about an average minor leaguer, which makes a score of 2.5 twice as good. A score of 2.0+ is excellent, while 1.75 is very good and 1.5 is well above average. Like with the SPOW scores, we'll break these down into tiers. (Stats are through 6/15/22) So here we go! The Best Power Hitters in the 2022 MiLB season to date (measured in terms of power numbers, strength of competition, runs created, k rate and staying out of double plays), but hint, it's NOT who you may think!
Name Team Age Level Score
Tier 1: Off the Chart/Elite
Esteury Ruiz SDP 23 AA,AAA 2.53
Alex Kirilloff MIN 24 AAA 2.49
Sean Bouchard COL 26 AAA 2.40
Enmanuel Valdez HOU 23 AA,AAA 2.39
Corbin Carroll ARI 21 AA 2.36
Tier 2: Excellent
Gunnar Henderson BAL 21 AA,AAA 2.27
Matt Gorski PIT 24 A+,AA 2.20
Nomar Mazara SDP 27 AAA 2.20
Trey Cabbage LAA 25 AA 2.20
Moises Gomez STL 23 AA 2.20
Jordan Lawlar ARI 19 A,CPX 2.18
Emmanuel Rodriguez MIN 19 A 2.17
Nolan Gorman STL 22 AAA 2.16
Vinnie Pasquantino KCR 24 AAA 2.15
Logan O'Hoppe PHI 22 AA 2.14
Kerry Carpenter DET 24 AA 2.13
Jacob Gonzalez PIT 24 A,A+ 2.11
Vaun Brown SFG 24 A 2.11
David MacKinnon LAA 27 AAA 2.10
J.J. Matijevic HOU 26 AAA 2.09
Henry Davis PIT 22 A,A+,AA,CPX 2.09
Matt Mervis CHC 24 A+,AA 2.07
Luisangel Acuna TEX 20 A+ 2.06
Spencer Steer MIN 24 AA,AAA 2.06
Levi Jordan CHC 26 AA,AAA 2.05
Ezequiel Tovar COL 20 AA 2.05
Ceddanne Rafaela BOS 21 A+,AA 2.04
Stone Garrett ARI 26 AAA 2.02
Dominic Fletcher ARI 24 AA,AAA 2.02
Jonah Bride OAK 26 AA,AAA 2.02
Royce Lewis MIN 23 AAA 2.00
Austin Wells NYY 22 A+ 2.00
Jakson Reetz MIL 26 AA 2.00
Tier 3: Very Good
Andres Alvarez PIT 25 AA 1.99
David Villar SFG 25 AAA 1.99
Shane Matheny SFG 26 AA 1.98
Daniel Montano COL 23 A+,AA 1.98
Mark Mathias MIL 27 AAA 1.97
Alec Burleson STL 23 AAA 1.96
Bo Naylor CLE 22 AA 1.93
Max Schuemann OAK 25 AA 1.93
John Rhodes BAL 21 A+ 1.93
Jackson Chourio MIL 18 A 1.93
Braiden Ward COL 23 A,A+ 1.92
Brent Rooker SDP 27 AAA 1.92
Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC 20 A,A+ 1.91
Masyn Winn STL 20 A+,AA 1.90
Paul McIntosh MIA 24 AA 1.90
Logan Porter KCR 26 AA 1.89
Jarren Duran BOS 25 AAA 1.89
Colin Simpson COL 25 A+ 1.89
Elly De La Cruz CIN 20 A+ 1.89
Colt Keith DET 20 A+ 1.88
Kyle Manzardo TBR 21 A+ 1.87
Mason Auer TBR 21 A 1.86
Matthew Lugo BOS 21 A+ 1.86
Caleb Hamilton MIN 27 AAA 1.86
Matthew Batten SDP 27 AAA 1.86
Lenyn Sosa CHW 22 AA 1.86
Ezequiel Duran TEX 23 AA 1.85
Bligh Madris PIT 26 AAA 1.85
Narciso Crook CHC 26 AAA 1.85
Christopher Morel CHC 23 AA 1.85
Anthony Seigler NYY 23 A,A+ 1.84
Colin Barber HOU 21 A+ 1.84
Jonathan Aranda TBR 24 AAA 1.83
Tyler Gentry KCR 23 A+,AA 1.83
Tucupita Marcano PIT 22 AA 1.82
Christian Encarnacion-S MIN 22 A+ 1.82
Brett Harris OAK 24 A+,AA 1.81
Brady Whalen STL 24 A 1.81
Alex McGarry CIN 24 A+,AA 1.81
Taylor Kohlwey SDP 27 AAA 1.80
Jordan Walker STL 20 AA 1.80
Connor Hollis SDP 27 AA 1.80
Werner Blakely LAA 20 A 1.80
Jancarlos Cintron ARI 27 AA,AAA 1.79
James Outman LAD 25 AA 1.78
Zach McKinstry LAD 27 AAA 1.78
Denzel Clarke OAK 22 A,A+ 1.78
Kyle Stowers BAL 24 AAA 1.77
Korry Howell SDP 23 AA 1.77
Elehuris Montero COL 23 AAA 1.76
Diego Cartaya LAD 20 A,A+ 1.76
Tier 4: Well Above Average
Curtis Mead TBR 21 AA 1.74
Hunter Goodman COL 22 A 1.74
Luis Rengifo LAA 25 AAA 1.73
Niko Kavadas BOS 23 A 1.72
Damon Keith LAD 22 A 1.72
Yohel Pozo TEX 25 AAA 1.71
Marcelo Mayer BOS 19 A 1.71
Meibrys Viloria TEX 25 AAA 1.70
Michael Busch LAD 24 AA,AAA 1.68
Justin Dirden HOU 24 AA 1.68
Vince Fernandez OAK 26 AAA 1.67
Blaze Alexander ARI 23 AA 1.67
Dillan Shrum KCR 24 A+ 1.67
Edwin Arroyo SEA 18 A 1.65
Landon Stephens ATL 24 A+ 1.65
Matt Wallner MIN 24 AA 1.64
Nerio Rodriguez HOU 22 A+ 1.63
Alex Isola MIN 23 AA 1.61
Chris Williams MIN 25 AA 1.61
Robert Perez Jr. SEA 22 A 1.61
Tyler Osik CHW 25 A+ 1.56
Comments