It has to be a rather terrifying experience to be promoted (even if also the most exhilarating). Do MLB pitchers throw harder? Do they have a greater variety of pitches? Surely they're more crafty...will they know my weakness? Is the strike zone different?
Which, in turn, likely turns into some self doubt for the prospect: can I do this? Will I succeed?...and that's even if the prospect had found great success in AAA. Of course, managers will just tell the prospects (keep doing what you were doing in the minors and you'll be fine). But is more of the same enough?
Why are promotions so hit and miss (e.g., for misses, look at Senzel, Kelenic, Robles, Kieboom and on and on....versus the hits, which are the stars of today, the guys that aren't just major leaguers, but perform well above average: Soto, Julio Rodriguez, Vladimir Guerrero).
Is it just throwing darts or can we really predict MLB success based on MiLB performance? Or do we have to rely on (and defer to) the scouting assessments of "tools" and "grades"? [Side note: In reality, it's probably a mix of a whole lot of factors, including unmeasurable ones, like determination, dedication, grit, expectations, belief, confidence, commitment, heart]
But, is there one or more measurables (hard stats) that we can correlate to success in MLB? Is there some metric that seems to be shared by successful players?
We had to keep going back to the drawing board on this one, and guess what? We found something. Now, this won't work on or for every single player (as some guys with a low metric something turn around and have a high metric in the majors and vice versa -- for whatever reason).....so....while this isn't foolproof, we actually found a relatively decent predictor! Are you ready?
MiLB wOBA. (Weighted On Base Average)**
That's it. wOBA. That's the best predictor of major league success.
Well, to be fair, there is a little bit more to it. 1) it has to be a high wOBA; AND 2) it helps to have +OPS and a -K rate. (BTW, we also compared and by process of elimination, excluded ISO, Spd, BABIP, wRC, wRAA and wRC+)
Specifically, we found that players who, in the minors, compiled a .400+ wOBA, .900+ OPS and a K rate of 24% or less resulted in better than average (to great: see Soto, Schwarber, Rizzo, Vlad, Alonso etc) major league success (measured by wRC+)
Looking back over 10 years of minor league stats (dating to 2012), here are the MLB guys that were successful in the minors (meeting our wOBA, OPS, K rate minimums):
Juan Soto (.472 wOBA, 1.043 OPS, K rate: 12.9% over 512 PA's)
Kyle Schwarber (.465 wOBA, 1.051 OPS, K rate: 21.2% over 665 PA's)
Anthony Rizzo (.462 wOBA, 1.043 OPS, K rate: 18.3% over 284 PA's)
Josh Donaldson (.440 wOBA, 1.025 OPS, K rate: 14.1% over 256 PA's)
Yasiel Puig (.435 wOBA, .997 OPS, K rate: 16.0% over 382 PA's)
Evan Gattis (.432 wOBA, .984 OPS, K rate: 15.0% over 401 PA's)
Julio Rodriguez (.432 wOBA, .955 OPS, K rate: 18.9% over 962 PA's)
Anthony Rendon (.426 wOBA, .947 OPS, K rate: 16.5% over 382 PA's)
Vladimir Guerrero (.420 wOBA, .945 OPS, K rate: 11.0% over 1262 PA's)
Kole Calhoun (.417 wOBA, .966 OPS, K rate: 15.7% over 790 PA's)
Alejandro Kirk (.417 wOBA, .919 OPS, K rate: 10.2% over 790 PA's)
Wander Franco (.417 wOBA, .936 OPS, K rate: 8.2% over 966 PA's)
Pete Alonso (.417 wOBA, .940 OPS, K rate: 20.3% over 1090 PA's)
Adam Eaton (.416 wOBA, .931 OPS, K rate: 13.0% over 759 PA's)
Michael Conforto (.416 wOBA, .921 OPS, K rate: 15.0% over 749 PA's)
Andrew Benintendi (.415 wOBA, .932 OPS, K rate: 9.6% over 657 PA's)
Luis Robert (.411 wOBA, .925 OPS,K rate: 23.4% over 922 PA's)
Kris Davis (.411 wOBA, .944 OPS, K rate: 21.1% over 708 PA's)
Travis d'Arnaud (.410 wOBA, .943 OPS, K rate: 16.8% over 648 PA's)
Yordan Alvarez (.409 wOBA, .943 OPS, K rate: 21.9% over 1080 PA's)
Joc Pederson (.406 wOBA, .920 OPS, K rate: 21.8% over 1664 PA's)
Yan Gomes (.406 wOBA, .935 OPS, K rate: 21.8% over 389 PA's)
Brad Miller (.406 wOBA, .923 OPS, K rate: 17.8% over 1162 PA's)
Jorge Soler (.404 wOBA, .919 OPS, K rate: 21.7% over 1032 PA's)
Rhys Hoskins (.405 wOBA .907 OPS, K rate: 18.5% over 1904 PA's)
So that was then, what about now? Well, here are the minor league guys that (again, based on our predictive metrics) appear destined for MLB success:
Jorge Puerta (LAD) (.499 wOBA, 1.069 OPS, K rate: 10.3% over 234 PA's)
Andrison Pena (TEX) (.492 wOBA, 1.030 OPS, K rate: 9.0% over 333 PA's)
Daniel Montesino (SD) (.453 wOBA, .934 OPS, K rate: 21.8% over 243 PA's)
Carlos Jorge (CIN) (.452 wOBA, .971 OPS, K rate: 21.9% over 297 PA's)
Corbin Carroll (AZ) (.451 wOBA, 1.039 OPS, K rate: 23.1% over 519 PA's)
James Wood (SD) (.443 wOBA, .968 OPS, K rate: 23.0% over 317 PA's)
Bryant Betancourt (COL) (.442 wOBA, .944 OPS, K rate: 14.1% over 262 PA's)
Jordan Lawlar (AZ) (.440 wOBA, .984 OPS, K rate 22.7% over 260 PA's)
Damon Keith (LAD) (.438 wOBA, .962 OPS, K rate 23.0% over 456 PA's)
Kyle Manzardo (TB) (.436 wOBA, .986 OPS, K rate: 16.2% over 284 PA's)
Jesus Rodriguez (NYY) (.431 wOBA, .907 OPS, K rate: 13.2% over 310 PA's)
Gabriel Gonzalez (SEA) (.429 wOBA, .922 OPS, K rate: 16.1% over 330 PA's)
Jesus Ordonez (COL) (.425 wOBA, .914 OPS, K rate: 11.8% over 279 PA's)
Pete Crow-Armstrong (NYM) (.423 wOBA, .933 OPS, K rate: 20.6% over 330 PA's)
Logan Porter (KCR) (.423 wOBA, .936 OPS, K rate: 22.1% over 899 PA's)
Jesus Ugueto (SEA) (.422 wOBA, .931 OPS, K rate: 16.3% over 523 PA's)
Jackson Chourio (MIL) (.419 wOBA, .910 OPS, K rate: 22.6% over 446 PA's)
Edgar Quero (LAA) (.416 wOBA, .904 OPS, K rate: 15.0% over 495 PA's)
Damiano Palmegiani (TOR) (.414 wOBA, .914 OPS, K rate: 19.3% over 367 PA's)
Hao Yu Lee (PHI) (.413 wOBA, .911 OPS, K rate: 17.4% over 224 PA's)
Vinnie Pasquantino (KCR) (.411 wOBA, .956 OPS, K rate: 13.2% over 1057 PA's)
Henry Davis (PIT (.411 wOBA, .929 OPS, K rate: 20.1% over 214 PA's)
Josh Jung (TEX) (.406 wOBA, .932 OPS, K rate: 20% over 540 PA's)
Jordan Walker (STL) (.405 wOBA, .909 OPS, K rate: 23.2% over 695 PA's)
Andy Pages (LAD) (.404 wOBA, .911 OPS, K rate: 23.5% over 1388 PA's)
CJ Abrams (SDP) (.403 wOBA, .910 OPS, K rate: 15.0% over 499 PA's)
Spencer Torkelson (DET) (.400 wOBA, .935 OPS, K rate: 21.5% over 530 PA's)
Anthony Volpe (NYY) (.400 wOBA, .904 OPS, K rate: 21.3% over 1011 PA's)
However, many of these top minor leaguers (fitting our criteria and set out above) are accomplishing these feats at the lowest levels of MiLB (even DSL, the ACL/FCL or Low A), so a question remains as to whether they will continue to do so by the date of promotion...together with the weight that should afforded successes of failures at the lower levels compared to the higher ones).
And, is 200 PA's enough? Or do those 200 PA's need to be at the AA/AAA level?
Well, we'll save those questions for next time, because for now, we'll just envision James Wood looking like Aaron Judge in Petco park (assuming he's not packaged in a Soto-esque deal this week)!
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The Notes stuff:
** wOBA is a version of on-base percentage that accounts for how a player reached base -- instead of simply considering whether a player reached base. The value for each method of reaching base is determined by how much that event is worth in relation to projected runs scored (example: a double is worth more than a single).
*** The formula: (unintentional BB factor x unintentional BB + HBP factor x HBP + 1B factor x 1B + 2B factor x 2B + 3B factor x 3B + HR factor x HR)/(AB + unintentional BB + SF + HBP).
**** Note: Fangraphs statistics used for players with MiLB stats from 1/1/2012 through through 7/17/22, 200+ min PAs, giving us a a world of 8799 minor league eligible players.
***** However, there were some notable MLB All-Star caliber Players just missing our cut: Kris Bryant (.462 wOBA, 1.068 OPS but 27% K rate), George Springer (.417 wOBA, .960 OPS, but a K rate of 26.6%), Mookie Betts (.403 wOBA and 10.5% K rate but OPS of .880), Christian Yelich (.402 wOBA and 21.3% K rate but OPS of .887), Byron Buxton (.398 wOBA, .883 OPS, 21.6% K rate over 1630 PA's), Bo Bichette (.398 wOBA, .894 OPS, K rate: 17.3%)
****** And here are few other major league regulars missing the cut... Andrew Vaughn (.393 wOBA) JD Davis (.391 wOBA), Taylor Ward (.386 wOBA), Jeff McNeil (.378 wOBA), Franmill Reyes (.353 wOBA)
******* And, you get a few minor leaguers that didn't get the call for one reason or another: Cyle Hankerd (CHW) (.434 wOBA, .993 OPS, 17.6% K rate over 499 PA's); Juan Mendez (PHI) (.444 wOBA, .939 OPS, K rate: 12.3% over 309 PA's); Darrell Miller (KCR) (.436 wOBA, .979 OPS, K rate: 12.0% over 283 PA's); Manuel Joseph (DET) (.435 wOBA, .910 OPS, K rate: 11.7% over 746 PA's)
******** Or that didn't quite find the same success in the majors: Steven Souza Jr. (.419 wOBA, .963 OPS, K rate: 21.7% over 1528 PA's); Jake Lamb (.408 wOBA, .934 OPS, K rate: 22.3% over 1496 PA's); Andrew Brown (COL) (.406 wOBA, .955 OPS, K rate: 21.7% over 1069 PA's); Keston Hiura (.403 wOBA, .922 OPS, K rate: 23.4% over 1194 PA's); Tyler White (.402 wOBA, .906 OPS, K rate 15.6% over 2969 PA's); Mike Zunino (.401 wOBA, .920 OPS, K rate: 22.1% over 860 PA's); andy Marte (LAA) (.400 wOBA, .928 OPS, K rate: 12.3% over 634 PA's)
********Photos may be subject to copyright and are used here under the "fair use" exception or with implied permission or a permissive license.
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