After we posted our list a month ago, we've seen the Red Sox' Brayan Bello graduate and struggle in his first 2 starts, but look good in his 3rd appearance.
With our leading candidate for a promotion now off the table, who can we look to for the next big call-up? [Ed. Note: Grayson Rodriguez would top this list if not for a Grade 2 right lat strain which may keep him out for the remainder of the year]
1. DL Hall (Orioles, AAA).
Although DL was blasted in his last start (6 ERs in just .2 IP, including 2 run HR's each to Memphis' Moises Gomez and Paul DeJong), I was reminded by Orioles fans that the body of work is still there...and it is! (2.96 xFIP, 38.3% K rate, despite a 4.45 AAA ERA over 60.2 IP) With Grayson out of the picture (for now), we felt that DL was on the verge of a call up before getting roughed by the Cards AAA team in his last start (granted, DeJong is a major leaguer and Moises should be), so now DL will need to put together 1 or 2 more good starts to earn the call.
2. Caleb Kilian (3.64 xFIP, CHC#5).
Caleb's first 3 starts for the NorthSiders didn't go as well as one would have hoped: (10.32 ERA, 11.1 IP with 12 BBs and 11 hits) and his first three starts back at AAA Iowa weren't good either (11 IP, 10 ER). But, the last 3 AAA starts have been more like it (12 IP, 3 ER). Caleb uses three + pitches (FB, Curve, Cutter) to string together outs, and on the year, has pitched to a 3.55 ERA with 84 K's in 66 IPs. He'll be back on the major league circuit soon and he'll be better!
3. Ken Waldichuk (Yankees, AAA). With a blazing FB and an xFIP of 3.44 and a 36.3% K rate, the Beaver has more than held his own in AAA (64 K's in 44 IP) and is knocking on the door in da Bronx.
4. Hunter Brown (Astros, AAA). Another guy that can chuck it (triple digit like) is Hunter Brown. The problem for Hunter is that the Stros are pitching rich. So, all the #1 HOU prospect can do, for now, is bide his time by chewing up batters in Sugar Land (106 K's over 80.1 IP, 2.58 ERA).
5. Taj Bradley (Rays, AAA). Every team asks "What the heck is TB's pitching secret? Where do they find these guys?" Our answer: "It's something in the water" [see MIA below]. After a stellar run through AA (1.70 ERA, 88 K's/74.1 IP), capped off by being named a starter in the minors all-star/futures game, Taj has continued his good work in AAA (2 starts, 7 IP, 10 K's 3.86 ERA). It won't be long before we see Taj in a Ray's uni.
6. Brandon Walter (Red Sox, AAA). After seeing his pen-mate graduate to the bigs, Brandon is feeling lonely in Worcester. But, after dominating the AA circuit at Portland (2.88 ERA 68 K's, 50 IP), Brandon's first start at AAA didn't go so well: 6 ER's in just 1.2 IP. The good news was that the 2nd start was much better (6 IP, 1 ER, 5 K's despite 4 hits and 3 BB's given up). If Brandon continues to improve and can pitch like he did in AA (2.59 xFIP), he'll soon be joining Brayan in Boston.
7. Kyle Harrison (Giants, AA). With 29 IP in A+ followed by 48.1 IP in AA, Kyle now has struck out 42.2% of batters faced while holding an overall xFIP of 2.75 (that's good for 10th best among pitchers w/ 50+ IP). After a dominant A+ start to the year (1.55 ERA), Kyle has followed up the promotion to AA with some more dazzling numbers (2.79 ERA, 74 K's in 48.1 IP). With San Fran talking about trading Rodon and others, there may soon be a spot in the big league rotation.
8. Wilmer Flores (Tigers, AA). With an xFIP of 2.82 (along with a 33% K rate) and 45 IP in AA with a 2.40 ERA (and just 9 BB's), Wilmer is ready for either a promotion to AAA or Detroit. And, with the state of the Tiger's rotation, why not give Wilmer a shot?
9. Gavin Williams (Guardians, AA). Gavin Williams is a flamethrower, plain and simple. But, he also has a pretty good curve and change combo that pairs with a slider in progress. That repertoire of 4 pitches, two above average ones and a Hunter Green caliber heater, make Gavin a surefire major leaguer. The question is when? Now with 34.2 AA innings to his name (45.0 in A+), Gavin has earned a look. But don't take our word, just look at the sparkling 1.69 ERA and 106 K's in 79.2 IP!
10. Gavin Stone (LAD, AA).
I've said it before and I'll say it again, Gavin Stone has been the best Dodgers Minor League pitcher this year. Holding down a xFIP of 2.87 over 59 AA innings (1.53 ERA) with 84 K's, Gavin has been nothing less than dominant. Gavin sets the tone with a 94 FB (which can reach 98) and pairs that with a decent slider and changeup. (We sound like a wine and cheese tasting)
But remember this, the lights are not too bright for the former University of Central Arkansas Bear, and a promotion to AAA (or the bigs) is near.
11. Eury Perez (Marlins, AA). Like another Florida team, ahem [coughing], Miami has done a pretty pretty good job finding/developing pitching (well, aside from injuries to Max Meyer, Sixto Sanchez and Cabrera). And now, introducing the next man up: Eury Perez. With a 3.16 xFIP (3.52 ERA) and a K-rate of 35.2% (101 K's in 71.2 IP), why not give Eury a few starts in the bigs? He's certainly, err, big enough.... With a 6'8" frame and downward force on a very good FB, Eury will not only intimidate batters with his presence and velocity, but he'll surprise them with a ++ change and a + curve.
12. Cade Cavalli (Nationals AAA). Almost no one had a worse start this year than Cade, so bad so I was seeing multiple dynasty fantasy owners punting/bunting (just darn giving up). But Cade is and was too good a pitcher to not overcome the poor start. And, in fact, over his last 10 starts (48.1 IP), Cade has compiled a 2.79 ERA to lower his overall ERA to a more palatable 4.03. Although the K's may not be what Cade had hoped (77 K's/76 IP), his Hunter Greene type fastball (and + Curve and + Slider) are major league ready!
Notable prospects just missing the cut:
Reese Olson (Tigers, AA). If Wilmer doesn't get the call to Detroit, how about this guy? Despite an xFIP of 3.09 and K rate of 34.2% (13.22 per 9), Reese Olson has flown under the radar. The 14th ranked DET prospect (per MLB) has an above average FB, Slider and Changeup. But, because none of those offerings are lights out, Reese hasn't drawn the same attention as other prospects. But, isn't it time we start paying attention to 116 K's in 79 IP -- especially for a Tigers team that is in need of pitching?
Tanner Bibee. (Guardians, AA). Who? Yeah, Tanner Bibee, the Guardian's #29 prospect (according to MiLB Pipeline). After breezing through A+ (2.59 ERA, 86 K's, 59 IP), Tanner has been even better in AA (1.25 ERA, 21.2 IP). Tanner isn't going to blow a ton of fastballs by anyone but he has 4 average to above pitches and throws strikes...and, not only has he compiled a 2.99 xFIP but has struck out 34.0% of batters faced. Of course, after watching Logan Allen dominate AA and then get roughed up in AAA, the safer bet to to promote Tanner to AAA first (unless DET would like to keep his confidence intact).
Mason Montgomery (Rays, AA). After smoking A+ ball (1.81 ERA, 118 K's in 69.2 IP), Mason has got off to a good start in AA (8.0 IP, 2 starts, 10 K's, 2.25 ERA). With a 2.81 xFIP and K rate of 40%, Tampa Bay has yet another SP phenom.
Garrett Hill (3.55 xFIP, DET#21).
*All xFIP stats via FanGraphs and are through 7/30/22
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